This Is Who We Are

This is a very strange question for a sports betting guide. However, it is much more interesting than it seems. Indeed, it tells us about this beautiful stranger with evil intentions, luck. Beautiful because she is seductive, because we could follow her to the end of the world, to the edge of madness. Dismal because it makes us believe, because it gives us hope and then it leaves us weary, bloody and without a penny in our pockets. We can ignore it, we can even despise it, but it is there in each of our bets, in each of our gains. She even comes to make fun of us when we are serious and cold in our real money bets, and a beginner playing by guesswork comes and racks up the jackpot with crazy odds. Here is a story where luck becomes insolent and tramples all our science, all our experience and certainly all our pretensions.

The spirit of contradiction to win the jackpot? It works!

The story takes place in a village in the Île-de-France region. A young woman has won 600,000 euros by filling in a sports betting grid of 14 matches. She knows absolutely nothing about soccer. She did not prepare her matches. She did not use our sports predictions, nor those of any tipster. She bought her grid and played the opposite results of those predicted by her father and husband. This nice nose dive turned into a winning grid for an unusual combination bet. So, one might ask, is it worth the effort to prepare your bets methodically when anyone can win by betting willy-nilly?

Never ignore the luck factor

Sports betting is a thankless business. You can have the best analysis possible, bet with your eyes closed and still end up with a match that will turn into a nightmare. Take for example the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain. The Parisians got eaten, much more than the tipsters thought with about twenty shots taken, a dozen shots on target. How many online bettors were hooked by the odds of Bayern's victory that went up to 2-2 before Kylian Mbappé scored the 3rd goal and showered the hopes of all those who were betting on a Bayern goal and a Bayern victory? Well, in the return match, the opposite happened with huge actions of PSG for a final victory of the Germans. This kind of match doesn't make sense. Some bettors won big, not by using a betting strategy, but simply by luck. Luck or bad luck or simply the uncertainty of the sport is a bit of a spectator's delight and that's what makes the odds so high. The more certain the outcome, the lower the odds for the favorite. The choice of odds is therefore an element to minimize the impact of luck. At a certain level, the bettor plays with luck. For us, above 2.50 is playing with fire. You can do it, but then you have to adjust the bet level.

Minimizing luck

Sports betting for dummiesIf the luck factor is always present, it can be minimized. Instead of gambling on a one-time basis, you need to establish a long-term strategy. The goal of a bettor is not to win big on one shot, but to win consistently over the medium term. You have to take into account your losses and gains. A bettor who wins 500 euros every six months when he has played 1000 is a losing bettor. He must therefore change his strategy and not be obsessed by his one-time wins. If you play online bookmakers, which in Italy the locals call siti scommesse sportive non AAMS, like you play the lottery, you will lose in the long run.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket

This is a simple but essential tip. We shun combination betting, which can be extremely profitable, but so random. It's hard enough to make the right analysis for one game, but several... You have to have the luck of the lady whose story we told you. The principle is to play on several meetings by balancing the risks. Knowing how to estimate a good bet also means estimating the right bet.